Charges of hypocrisy are easy. But proving them is harder.
McCain found himself in a complicated vote yesterday with three competing values. First of all, McCain broadly supports Obamacare repeal, so moving onto debate and getting the legislative process underway suits those interests. (Liberals who feel like that’s unprincipled need to square themselves with the fact that principles they don’t like are still principles.) Debating that is in his interest and I take him at his word when he says he believes it in the nation’s interest.
Second, McCain opposes using procedural votes as proxies for final votes—in fact, he generally opposes Motions to Proceed. McCain has been in the Senate long enough to remember when they skipped that Motion by unanimously voting to debate. The principle here is to err on the side of debate rather than hiding behind the process. McConnell changed all that to make it harder for the Democrats to operate. McCain opposed the change, though, to be clear, he was inconsistent in actually voting against Motions to Proceed. It’s less hypocritical when you consider that in those cases, he usually had a clear principle against whatever was being advanced. This is the classic rock and a hard place.
Third, McCain supports regular order in committee. I can’t explain this better than the pure column of justified rage that was Claire McCaskill:
Traditionally this committee would have had not held just a hearing, but multiple hearings. McCain has publicly joined these concerns—though, he has not yelled at a committee chair with cameras on. The vote on the Motion to Proceed restored regular order, but skipped this step. McCaskill and McCain differed on their final judgment in ways that benefit their hope for a final outcome. It is a complicated trade off. Do you accept half of regular order? Or is it all or nothing? How do you weigh your legislative goals in these calculations? Its easy to say McCain should have voted the way you want. But that doesn’t mean the principles here are easy or clear.
Fortunately, Minority Leader Schumer is going to make this easy!
The motion to send back to committee is a chance for Senators calling for regular order to get it. Having asked around, the consensus I got is that this this will take 60 votes to overcome the procedural filibuster and then 51 to pass. Every person, however, said some variation of they’re not sure, so take this with a grain of salt.
Republican Senators on Record Supporting a return to regular order:
- Sen. Collins, ME
- Sen. Murkowski, AL
- Sen. McCain, AZ
- Sen. Johnson, MN
- Sen. Moran, KS
- Mike Lee, UT
- Sen. Paul, KY
- Sen. Cassidy, KA (oblique)
- Sen. Capito, WV (oblique)
If these 8 of these 9 band together and vote with the Democrats, they can overrule McConnell’s unusual process that trashes Senate norms. I am sure a few other others should be on this list. At any rate, 7 of them have explicitly said they would like to see a return to the committee process, while Cassidy and Capito have spoken more about a vague “open process”. They are arranged on the list above in roughly descending order of commitment, though its a very subjective order.
Am I predicting that they will send this back to committee? No. Apart from the logistical hurdle of making that deal in the next few hours, I suspect that some of them supported it when it was cheap and are just full of hot air. Paul, Cassidy, and Moran strike me as especially likely to fold given anything resembling a deal; Capito and Cassidy haven’t even explicitly committed to the plan.
But for the 7 who have offered unqualified support for the committee process, this is a good test of how genuine that support is. For those who attacked McCain last night, he can prove you wrong or he can prove you early by voting to head back to committee.
This, more than the final vote, is the measure of hypocrisy.