Perspective

Some quick math to put Super Tuesday (on the Democratic side) into perspective.

Let’s ignore super delegates on the grounds that they could change their position if Sanders pulls this out of the bag. It is very possible that Sanders could win the regular count and lose at the convention, but since many of the super delegates are up for reelection, they might not want to face that at the polls in the fall. That gives us a delegate count of 4051, with 2026 needed to win.

With that in mind, Clinton has 594 regular delegates and Sanders has 405. That’s 29.3% and 20.0% of a win, respectively.

At face, Sanders has a path forward. Super Tuesday was admittedly stacked against him—the primary schedule is designed to push against a Sanders-type candidate. So, losing 3:2 at this point is not losing. The problem for Sanders is that the national polling has held them at about 3:2, meaning that Sanders is probably where he is going to end up. Throw in the super delegates, and this gets harder for Sanders.

Those arguing Sanders is finished are overreaching. Those arguing that he can shake off Super Tuesday don’t have much to stand on here besides hoping that state-by-state polling is wrong or will change.

Too soon to call, but too late to think that Sanders has a good chance.

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